Summary
The Trinity Air Link project acquires and repurposes the historic Texas & Pacific Warehouse into an integrated mobility hub combining vertiport infrastructure, autonomous vehicle terminals, charging systems, dispatch software, and data/traffic management. The preferred capital-light model avoids direct fleet ownership and monetizes infrastructure access and platform services.
$293.2M
NPV (With Terminal)
Investment Thesis
- Control of scarce urban mobility infrastructure node in a top-tier U.S. growth market.
- Operator-neutral platform capturing economics from multiple certified eVTOL and AV operators.
- Diversified revenue: air mobility access, ground mobility access, real estate, data/technology, ancillary.
- Capital-light structure improves returns and reduces balance sheet risk.
- First-mover advantage in Fort Worth relative to Dallas-led eIPP rollout.
- Scalable model across 50+ metropolitan markets.
Financial Overview
- Year 5 revenue (moderate): $133.4M.
- Year 5 EBITDA (moderate): $44.9M (~34% margin).
- Break-even targeted Year 5.
- Terminal value modeled separately using 8.0x EBITDA multiple.
- Base case IRR excludes terminal value to avoid overstatement.
- Terminal value provides upside rather than core return driver.
Key Risks
- eVTOL certification timing and regulatory approvals.
- Adoption rate of premium mobility services.
- Construction and cost overrun risk.
- Mitigated via phased rollout and AV/real estate revenue.
- Fleet ownership risk avoided under capital-light model.
- Stress case modeled with negative IRR to demonstrate downside.
Capital Structure
Preferred capital-light case requires approximately $107M–$113M total capital. Phase 1 funding of $20M secures site control, regulatory positioning, design, and operator agreements prior to major infrastructure spend.
Recommendation
Proceed with Phase 1 investment subject to confirmation of site control, operator MOUs, and regulatory pathway alignment. The project offers infrastructure-style returns with venture-like upside under a capital-light model, with clear mitigation of fleet-related risks.