Calculated financial projections, capital framing, revenue scenarios, and return analysis for a capital-light multi-operator eVTOL and autonomous vehicle infrastructure platform.
| Scenario | Planning Range | What It Assumes |
|---|---|---|
| Lean / Phased Activation | $46M–$78M | Selective square footage activation, restrained TI load, smaller rooftop package, limited terminal and charging build. |
| Flagship Initial Build | $67M–$122M | Serious activation of a larger area, stronger rooftop package, credible charging/utilities, public-facing passenger environment, deeper technology integration. |
| Heavy Historic / Full-Scope Exposure | $122M+ | Broader building repositioning, heavier TI scope, larger mobility infrastructure package, larger utility and contingency burden. |
| Model | Phase 3 Capital Need | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Capital-Light Operator Access | $10M–$16M | Preferred base case. Independent operators provide aircraft/vehicles and absorb fleet capex. Trinity controls the infrastructure and platform economics. |
| Hybrid | $18M–$24M | Limited seed/demo vehicle exposure where required to prove route economics while operators carry most fleet capex. |
| Owned Fleet | $32M | Upside/control case. Trinity purchases or finances the initial fleet, capturing more revenue but assuming more asset, depreciation, maintenance, insurance, and regulatory exposure. |
| Revenue Stream | Conservative | Moderate | Optimistic | Basis / Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Mobility Platform Revenue | $21.9M | $54.8M | $131.4M | Pad/stand access, passenger facility charges, charging markup, dispatch/data fees, revenue share |
| Ground Mobility Platform Revenue | $16.4M | $54.8M | $137.3M | AV bay/curb access, passenger facility charges, energy services, routing API, data fees, revenue share |
| Innovation Center / Real Estate | $2.4M | $3.8M | $5.1M | 120K sq ft, $25–45/sq ft, 80–95% occupancy |
| Technology Licensing & IP | $4.0M | $10.0M | $16.0M | Dispatch software, data, consulting, licensing |
| Ancillary | $6.0M | $10.0M | $16.0M | Retail, dining, parking, cargo, services |
| Total Revenue | $50.7M | $133.4M | $305.8M |
| Scenario | Revenue | Total OpEx | EBITDA | EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $50.7M | $59.0M | ($8.3M) | -16% |
| Moderate / Base | $133.4M | $88.5M | $44.9M | 34% |
| Optimistic | $305.8M | $138.0M | $167.8M | 55% |
| Year | Development Phase | Net Project Cash Flow | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Phase 1 | ($25M) | Planning, regulatory, team, early operating burn |
| 2027 | Phase 2 | ($55M) | Selective activation and infrastructure development |
| 2028 | Phase 3 | ($17M) | Capital-light technology systems, charging, dispatch, operator access infrastructure |
| 2029 | Phase 4 | ($2M) | Launch year with major revenue ramp |
| 2030 | Year 5 | $40M | Breakeven / positive annual cash-flow target |
| 2031 | Stabilization | $50M | Operator agreements mature |
| 2032 | Stabilization | $55M | Route expansion and higher utilization |
| 2033 | Stabilization | $60M | Platform revenue growth |
| 2034 | Stabilization | $65M | Mature multi-operator network |
| 2035 | Stabilization / Exit | $70M | Final projected annual cash flow before terminal value |
| Scenario | IRR Before Terminal | NPV @ 10% Before Terminal | Terminal Value | IRR With Terminal | NPV With Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital-Light Conservative | 5.0% | ($23.9M) | $210M | 18.3% | $65.2M |
| Capital-Light Moderate / Base | 24.8% | $89.7M | $480M | 36.8% | $293.2M |
| Capital-Light Optimistic | 55.7% | $440.3M | $1.0B | 62.8% | $864.4M |
| Owned-Fleet Low-Demand Stress | (17.2%) | ($139.6M) | $175M | 2.3% | ($65.4M) |
| Case | Year 10 EBITDA | Exit Multiple | Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $35M | 6.0x | $210M |
| Moderate | $60M | 8.0x | $480M |
| Optimistic | $100M | 10.0x | $1.0B |
| Case | Total Capital | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Capital-Light Operator Access Case | $107M–$113M | Preferred base case; operators carry vehicle capex |
| Hybrid Case | $115M–$121M | Limited seed/demo fleet exposure |
| Owned-Fleet Case | $129M | Upside/control case; higher fleet exposure |
| Phase 1 Funding Target | $20M | Planning, regulatory, design, team, partner MOUs |
Trinity Air Link Transportation System · Fort Worth, Texas
All financial outputs are scenario-based planning estimates and depend on certification timelines, adoption rates, partner terms, financing conditions, and the ultimate square footage / infrastructure activation scope.